Investment

Pokémon & One Piece as an Investment: Have Trading Cards Outperformed the S&P 500?

Giuliano Stellini |

Pokémon & One Piece as Investments: Have Trading Cards Beaten the S&P 500?

As of: 2026

Pokémon cards, One Piece booster boxes, and rare trading cards are no longer just purchased by players and fans. High-quality collectible cards, PSA-10 cards, and original sealed booster boxes have evolved into their own market for collectibles and alternative assets.

But how good were trading cards actually as an investment?

The short answer:

Certain segments of the trading card market have significantly outperformed the S&P 500 in recent years. In Pokémon, the "Sealed Products" segment – meaning unopened booster boxes and other original sealed products – performed particularly strongly. Individual early One Piece products also achieved exceptional increases in value since the launch of the One Piece Card Game.

However, this does not mean that every Pokémon or One Piece card is automatically a good investment.

The difference between an ordinary booster, an average single card, and a rare, unopened collector's product is enormous.

Trading Cards vs. S&P 500: Key Figures

A 2026 analysis by TCGinvest examined 8,881 single Pokémon cards and 90 sealed Pokémon products over a five-year period.

From June 1, 2021, to June 1, 2026, the results were:

Investment Performance
Pokémon Sealed Products – Median +238.0%
Pokémon Sealed Products – Total Basket +214.6%
Pokémon Single Cards – Median +38.3%
S&P 500 Price Index +80.9%

Thus, the median of the sealed Pokémon products examined significantly outpaced the S&P 500 during this period.

Particularly interesting: 94.4% of the sealed products examined increased in price over the five-year period.

The weakest tenth of the sealed products examined still achieved +30.9%, according to the analysis. For single cards, the situation was completely different: the weakest tenth lost around 70%.

This is precisely why many collectors view unopened products differently than individual cards.

What would CHF 10,000 have become?

Let's make the numbers tangible.

Assuming an investment of CHF 10,000 would have exactly matched the median performance of the examined Pokémon Sealed products of +238%.

Pokémon Sealed

From:

CHF 10,000

mathematically, it would have become:

CHF 33,800

Profit:

CHF 23,800

S&P 500

With a price increase of +80.9%, the same:

CHF 10,000

would have become approximately:

CHF 18,090

Profit:

CHF 8,090

Thus, a hypothetical position with the median return of the examined Pokémon Sealed products would have reached an end value approximately CHF 15,710 higher.

Important: The S&P 500 comparison used refers to price development without dividends. A total return index including reinvested dividends would have performed better. For trading cards, on the other hand, trading fees, shipping, insurance, storage, and sales costs must be taken into account.

Pokémon over 20 years: +3,261%?

Even more spectacular is a figure that has garnered international attention in recent years.

Data from Card Ladder, reported by Fortune among others, estimated the long-term appreciation of Pokémon cards over approximately 20 years at:

+3,261%

Fortune thus described Pokémon as the card category with the strongest long-term price development in this dataset.

For comparison, the S&P 500 was often cited with a development of approximately:

+421%

in the corresponding comparison.

Mathematically, this would mean:

CHF 10,000 with +3,261%

= CHF 336,100

CHF 10,000 with +421%

= CHF 52,100

This is a huge difference.

But these numbers need to be interpreted correctly.

They do not mean that someone could have indiscriminately invested CHF 10,000 in Pokémon boosters 20 years ago and would be guaranteed to own CHF 336,100 today.

Which cards are captured, condition, grading, rarity, and so-called survivorship or selection effects can significantly influence such indices.

Even financial media have therefore warned against interpreting this figure as a direct 1:1 comparison with a broadly diversified stock index.

Nevertheless, the long-term price development of high-quality Pokémon collectibles remains remarkable.

Even more interesting: Pokémon Sealed instead of single cards

The most important insight for collectors is therefore not:

"Pokémon beats stocks."

But rather:

Not all trading cards develop equally.

In the five-year analysis, the average or median single card performed significantly worse than sealed products.

The median of single cards was only:

+38.3%

The median of sealed products, on the other hand, was:

+238.0%.

For collectors and buyers of high-quality collectibles, this distinction is crucial.

Why can unopened Pokémon products increase in value?

An unopened product has a special characteristic:

With every opened booster or opened booster box, the number of original sealed copies can decrease.

At the same time, nostalgic sets remain interesting for collectors.

Demand can therefore persist or increase, while available original sealed stock becomes rarer in the long term.

In addition, several factors contribute:

  • global recognition of the Pokémon brand

  • nostalgia among adult collectors

  • limited availability of older sets

  • professionalization through PSA, BGS, and other grading companies

  • global marketplaces like eBay

  • transparent sales histories and pricing platforms

  • increasing demand for high-quality collectibles

Pokémon is also one of the world's largest entertainment franchises. Trading cards are therefore not dependent on a small niche community.

One Piece: From card game to high-end collectible

Even younger – and therefore particularly interesting – is the One Piece Card Game by Bandai.

The Japanese One Piece Card Game launched in 2022. The English version of the first set, OP-01 Romance Dawn, also appeared in 2022.

And it is precisely this first set that impressively shows what can happen with successful trading card franchises.

StockX states an original retail price of around:

USD 100

for an English Romance Dawn booster box.

In August 2026, the last documented sale there was approximately:

USD 1,431

This corresponds to a theoretical increase in value of approximately:

+1,331%

compared to USD 100.

Of course, this comparison is particularly spectacular and concerns a specific early product, not the entire One Piece market.

Furthermore, different print variants and reprints exist, whose market prices can vary greatly.

Nevertheless, OP-01 very clearly shows the significance that the first set of a successful TCG series can develop for collectors in the long term.

CHF 10,000 in One Piece OP-01 – a thought experiment

Let's hypothetically assume that a buyer could have invested CHF 10,000 at the original price of USD 100 entirely in corresponding booster boxes.

With a development of +1,331%, the position would have mathematically reached a value of approximately:

CHF 143,100

For comparison:

The S&P 500 stood at 4,071.70 points on December 2, 2022.

In August 2026, the index was last approximately 7,641 points.

This corresponds to approximately:

+87.7%

on a price basis.

CHF 10,000 would thus have been worth approximately:

CHF 18,767

The difference is enormous.

But again: The OP-01 comparison shows the development of an exceptionally successful collector's product. It is not proof that future booster boxes will achieve the same development.

Japanese and English can also develop completely differently

Another important factor for trading cards is the language or edition.

The Japanese OP-01 Romance Dawn Booster Box also launched in 2022. StockX states a retail price of USD 100 and a recent sale of around USD 308.

This corresponds to approximately:

+208%

The English variant developed significantly stronger in the same franchise.

For collectibles investors, this means:

Not only the set determines the value.

Relevant factors can also include:

  • language

  • print run

  • first or later edition

  • reprints

  • packaging variant

  • condition

  • demand in different countries

  • iconic characters

  • historical significance of a set

What makes a trading card valuable in the long term?

A high price alone does not automatically mean good investment potential.

For high-end collectibles, five factors primarily play a role.

1. Scarcity

The harder a product is to obtain in the long term, the more interesting it can become for collectors.

2. Significance

The first set of a TCG, first cards of iconic characters, or historical releases often have a special collector's status.

3. Demand

A rare card without buyers is not a liquid investment.

Pokémon, One Piece, and other major Japanese franchises benefit from global fan communities.

4. Condition

For single cards, the difference between PSA 9 and PSA 10 can be several thousand Swiss francs.

5. Sealed Condition

For booster boxes and cases, an undamaged original seal is crucial.

Are trading cards therefore better than stocks?

Not fundamentally.

Stocks and trading cards are completely different forms of investment.

An S&P 500 ETF offers stakes in hundreds of large companies, high liquidity, transparent markets, and dividends.

Trading cards, however, offer no company profits, no dividends, and no guaranteed cash flows.

Their value depends on what other collectors are willing to pay for them in the future.

This makes trading cards more speculative.

A scientific study, for example, indicates that Pokémon portfolios, under one examined strategy, even underperformed traditional investments from January 2021 to December 2023.

So there are both extraordinary winners and disappointing investments.

Precisely for this reason, selection is crucial.

Trading Cards as Alternative Assets

Trading cards are more comparable to other collectibles:

Watches, art, classic cars, wine, sneakers, or rare handbags.

The buyer acquires a physical asset whose price is determined by scarcity, condition, cultural significance, and demand.

The big difference from many traditional collectibles is the relatively young buyer demographic.

People who grew up with Pokémon in the 1990s and 2000s now increasingly have their own income and wealth.

One Piece, on the other hand, has a huge international fanbase and a very young Trading Card Game that started in 2022.

This combination of nostalgia, pop culture, scarcity, and growing purchasing power makes the market for high-quality trading cards particularly interesting.

Conclusion: Can Pokémon and One Piece beat the S&P 500?

Yes – individual trading cards and especially selected sealed products have significantly outperformed the S&P 500 in certain periods.

A broad five-year analysis found a median price increase of +238% for 90 examined Pokémon sealed products, compared to +80.9% for the S&P 500 price index.

Early One Piece products sometimes show even more extreme developments: An English OP-01 Romance Dawn Booster Box rose from its original retail price to a last documented StockX sale of around USD 1,431 – many times the original price.

The crucial message is therefore not:

"Buy any trading cards."

But rather:

Quality, scarcity, condition, historical significance, and the right product selection are decisive.

For collectors who already have a passion for Pokémon, One Piece, and Japanese pop culture, high-quality trading cards can therefore represent a fascinating addition to classic assets.

But they remain collectibles – with opportunities and risks.

Frequently Asked Questions about Trading Cards as Investments

Are Pokémon cards a good investment?

Certain rare Pokémon cards and particularly some sealed products have historically achieved significant price increases. However, the value development differs greatly depending on the set, condition, rarity, and product type.

Have Pokémon cards beaten the S&P 500?

In certain periods and segments, yes. An analysis of 90 Pokémon sealed products calculated a median price increase of +238% between June 2021 and June 2026, compared to +80.9% for the S&P 500 price index.

Are One Piece cards interesting as an investment?

The One Piece Card Game is still young. Particularly early sets like OP-01 Romance Dawn have experienced strong price increases. However, this does not mean that future sets will develop in the same way.

What is better: single cards or sealed booster boxes?

Historical data shows significant differences, at least for Pokémon. In the aforementioned five-year analysis, the median for sealed products was +238%, while the median for the single cards examined only reached +38.3%.

What does "Sealed" mean for Trading Cards?

Sealed means that a product is still originally closed and unopened. This includes booster boxes, displays, cases, Elite Trainer Boxes, and other originally packaged products.

Which Trading Cards are particularly in demand?

The most well-known TCG franchises worldwide include Pokémon, One Piece, Magic: The Gathering, and Yu-Gi-Oh!. Among collectors, early sets, rare cards, PSA-10 cards, Manga Rares, and limited products play a particularly important role.

Sources and Methodology

The market data used comes from analyses and sales data from Card Ladder, TCGinvest, Fortune, PSA, TCGplayer, PriceCharting, StockX, FRED, and Reuters, among others. Market prices of collectibles can vary significantly depending on the platform, condition, edition, language, and actual sales price.

Note: This article is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a purchase recommendation, or a guarantee of future value development.